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Cheat Sheet: Economic Indicators

Well-known economist Gene Sperling reveals his top resources for gauging economic performance in "The Insider's Guide to Economic Forecasting " on page 96 of the August 2003 issue of Inc. Here, Inc.com provides an interactive directory to his lesser-known resources, complete with links to the original piece via the "Indicator" headings and regular updates on recent research from the various resources.

Indicator: CEO Polls

What to look for: Increases or decreases in spending and hiring plans.

Resources: The Business Roundtable is an association of chief executive officers from leading corporations who are committed to advocating public policies that foster economic growth. Its more than 150 members participate in quarterly surveys, which reveal members' outlooks on the economy.

The Business Council is a voluntary association of business leaders, both current and former chief executive officers, who meet several times a year to discuss major public policy issues. The Business Council periodically surveys its 190 members to gauge CEO mood swings and their respective outlooks on the economy.

Recent data: The Business Roundtable released its quarterly economic outlook on July 16, 2003. Overall, CEOs are more optimistic when compared to the survey's April 2003 results, and they expect the economy to continue to gain some footing. The findings reflect the outlook for the next six months, and revealed, among other information:

• Only 12% of the 117 CEOs surveyed expect to decrease their capital spending over the next six months as compared to 27% last April.
• Sixty-nine percent of CEOs expect their sales to increase, while only 2% expect lower sales over the next six months.
• Sixteen percent of CEOs expect employment growth over the next six months as compared to only 9% last April; 42% expect their employment to drop while 43% expect it to remain the same.

To download a PDF of the complete survey results, go to www.brtable.org/press.cfm/975 and scroll down to the bottom of the press release to find the link "To view economic survey results."

Released in February 2003, The Business Council's biannual survey of its 190 members revealed some less than optimistic outlooks for the coming year, mainly due to geopolitical events, weak foreign economic growth, and increasing energy prices. Twenty-two percent of the CEOs surveyed expected economic growth to be sluggish, while 72% expected moderate growth. On the business front, 55% of CEOs expected their firms' sales to increase in 2003. Fourteen percent expected either slower growth or a drop in sales. CEOs' hiring plans were less optimistic: 46% expected no change in the rate of new hires and 45% expected a slowdown in the rate of new hires.

The Council's next survey results will be available in October 2003.

For more results from the February 2003 survey and for information on the upcoming survey, please contact Clifton Webb at 302-774-4005

Indicator: Temp Jobs

What to look for: Fluctuations in the number of employees working part time for economic reasons and in the number of workers employed in temporary jobs.

Resource: The Bureau of Labor Statistics researches and maintains data in the broad field of labor economics and statistics for the Federal Government.

To find information pertaining to part-time workers, go to the Bureau of Labor Statistic's Historical data for series in the monthly Employment Situation news release -- table A-5. Scroll down to find "Part-time for economic reasons" and click to retrieve data.

For information on temporary jobs, BLS compiles data under the label "Temporary Help Services" at www.bls.gov/ces/home.htm. Recent data is included in the "Employment Situation Summary" under the heading "Economic News Releases." You can view the data in Text or PDF format.

For historical data on temporary help, go to "Historical Data for 'B' Tables," then click on "Employees on nonfarm payrolls by industry sector" and scroll down to find "Temporary Help Services."

Recent data: At the end of July 2003, 4.9 million workers were classified as part-time for economic reasons, as compared to 4.4 million in July 2002. Preliminary data revealed 2.3 million workers classified as temporary help services for July 2003, a slight increase from comparable figures for July 2002, which were 2.2 million.

Indicator: Retail Sales

What to look for: Increasing or decreasing same-store sales.

Resources: Wal-Mart's same-store sales information is available via its corporate website. Click on "News Releases" from the homepage, and then look for "Sales and Summaries" for up-to-date information. Wal-Mart provides a recorded telephone message at 479-273-8446 discussing further details for 36 hours after each sales summary is released.