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Cheat Sheet: Economic Indicators

 

Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi Retail Chain Store Index is released monthly and represents same-store sales across 78 major retail chains. Click on the most recent month's retail trends report.

Recent data: Wal-Mart reported net sales of $18.6 billion for the four weeks ending August 1, 2003, an increase of 11.9% over net sales recorded during a similar period in 2002.

Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi's tally of 77 chain stores revealed a 4.3% rise in July 2003 as compared to last year's July figures. Comparable store sales for July 2003 totaled $46.7 billion, while during the same four-week fiscal month of July 2002, sales came in at $44.8 billion.

Indicator: Commercial and Industrial Loans

What to look for: Any flattening in the decline of commercial and industrial lending, which would suggest the demand for credit has stabilized or increased. Also look for any loosening or tightening of bank lending standards for small businesses.

Resources: CIL is released by the Federal Reserve weekly for "large commercial banks" and monthly for "all commercial banks." Follow the latest press releases at www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h8.

Historial data can be found via the St. Louis Fed at research.stlouisfed.org.

Find the Federal Reserve's Quarterly Bank Officer Survey at www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/SnLoanSurvey.

Recent data: CIL data suggests the demand for credit flattened a bit during between July 2003 and August 20, 2003. For the week ending August 20, CIL came in at $916.9 billion, a decline from its $927.9 billion July 2003 figure. Comparatively, CIL for July 2002 was $978.7 billion.

Indicator: Semiconductors

What to look for: The book-to-bill ratio. When the book-to-bill ratio is one, things are at a steady state. However, a ratio less than one signals a decline in demand; a ratio greater than one suggests things are looking up.

Resources: Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International publishes monthly press releases at www.semi.org/web/wpress.nsf/.

Recent data: North American-based manufacturers of semiconductor equipment posted $763 million in orders in July 2003 and a book-to-bill ratio of 0.97, according to the July 2003 Express Report. A book-to-bill of 0.97 means that $97 worth of new orders were received for every $100 of product billed for the month.

Indicator: Commercial Structures

What to look for: The growth in the rate of investment in nonresidential structures. Declining investment suggests that fewer businesses are expanding and have little need to build offices.

Resources: Investment data in nonresidential structures is available as part of the Bureau of Labor Statistics's NIPA series -- the same series that include GDP. You can find a list of all NIPA tables on the site's "Interactive Access to National Income and Product Accounts Tables" at www.bea.doc.gov/bea/dn/nipaweb/index.asp. Choose the link "Choose a table from a list of All NIPA tables." Scroll down to find Table 5.5, "Real Private Fixed Investment" to see data on investment in nonresidential structures.

Recent data: Investment in nonresidential structures went up during the second quarter from 2003 first quarter results, up from $211 million to $214.7 million dollars invested. Compared with the second quarter of 2002, 2003 investment dropped by approximately $17 million.

Indicator: Housing Prices

What to look for: Increases or decreases in the housing market, signifying consumer optimism or pessimism.

Resources: The Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight's quarterly "Housing Price Index" is available at www.ofheo.gov/HPI.asp.

New home sales are reported by the Census Bureau at www.census.gov/const/www/newressalesindex.html.

Recent data: During the second quarter of 2003, the average U.S. home price increased 5.56% from the second quarter of 2002. However, the trend over the last four quarters revealed continued gradual deceleration.

New homes sales increased from 961,000 in July 2002 to 1.17 million in July 2003.

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