And the even larger number of 8088 and 8086 micros sitting on desks will remain in use for years. As a result, many companies will be struggling with a jumble of three coexisting processors and operating systems, none of which are fully compatible. Programs and files will no longer be readily transferable between systems, and people trained on one system will have difficulty with a second. The disorder is starting to paralyze software developers, who do not know which combination of hardware and operating system to put their major efforts into.
So what can you do? The best strategy might be to start with or switch to another kind of microcomputer. The most serious contenders are the Apple Macintoshes.
The Motorola CPU chips used in the Macintosh microcomputers do not suffer from the incompatibilities that plague Intel's CPUs, which means that the same software can run on any existing Macintosh model. The operating system and user interface is uniform across models and across applications, and switching from an early version of the operating system to a later one requires no relearning. Overall, software for the Macintosh is about two years ahead of software for the IBM PC. Indeed, it is precisely the advantages of Mac software that IBM and Microsoft are attempting to mimic with Presentation Manager in OS/2. These days, many developers of advanced software are writing programs for the Mac instead of PCs, planning to produce IBM versions when the dust settles. For example, ON Technology, a new company started by Lotus Development Corp. founder Mitch Kapor, is developing its product for the Macintosh first.
The main disadvantages of the Macintosh are its price and Apple's status as the sole supplier of hardware. Macintoshes are expensive, and Apple produces only a few models. Another drawback is the lack of a satisfactory portable Mac, and when Apple finally produces one, it too will undoubtedly be expensive.
As for other systems, they lack the range of software available for the IBM PC and the Macintosh. Someday UNIX could become a competitive operating system in the business marketplace -- although UNIX machines and software suffer from vastly greater incompatibilities than the IBM PC -- but for at least the next few years, the software choices will be limited and very expensive.
If sticking with IBM is your only alternative, the following plan should help minimize the confusion of the next five years:
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* 1988. If you need to buy hardware, don't buy any microcomputer based on the 8088 or 8086 processors; they have no future. At current prices, it's a good idea to buy micros built around the 286, which are selling for only a few hundred dollars more than basic PCs. Overall, it will probably cost you less to buy an AT-like machine now and trade it up for a 386 machine later than it costs to buy a 386 machine now. But because even 286-based models will have a limited useful life, go for the less expensive brands. On the other hand, if your business can use the speed of a 386 micro now (as a central computer on a network, for example), stay with the major brands; while OS/2 is still in flux, larger companies are more certain to support their 386 machines. If you absolutely need more memory for MS-DOS software now, you might consider the Lotus-Intel-Microsoft Expanded Memory Specification (EMS). Designed to work on an 8088 CPU, this scheme is at best an awkward stopgap, but if your software supports it, EMS is better than nothing.
On the software side, keep the same MS-DOS word processor, spreadsheet, and database that you are currently using. There is no point changing now to another MS-DOS program, even if it offers better features, because you will soon have to retrain everybody for OS/2 programs.
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* 1989. Most of your microcomputer users will probably continue with MS-DOS through 1989. A key planner or a small group in your company that has a 286 or 386 model should now buy OS/2 with Presentation Manager. This person or group should start looking for OS/2 applications to replace your MS-DOS programs and for utility programs to convert data stored by MS-DOS programs.
If you need more hardware, you should buy some 286 and some 386 machines. The ratio will depend on the price of the 386-based models; if their price has dropped significantly, buy more of them. By mid- to late 1989, you should know if OS/2 with Presentation Manager will run on the less expensive 386-based models.
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* 1990-1991. By now, OS/2 Presentation Manager programs should be appearing in all major software categories. When your planning team has found a good set of OS/2 products, change over from MS-DOS as quickly as you can; avoid running both MS-DOS and OS/2 in your company at the same time. Retire all MS-DOS software and any old hardware that can only run MS-DOS. At this point, 386-based micros may be cheap enough that you need not buy any more 286-based models.
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* 1992-1993. Application software specifically designed for 386-based microcomputers should start appearing at this time. If a 386 program is an enhanced version of an OS/2 program written for a 286 micro, you may be able to run both versions within your company without much difficulty. The very best software may be available only in a 386 version, however, so you will have to make some choices. Presentation Manager should at least minimize the retraining involved in switching from one version to another.
By now, hardware based on the Intel 80486 CPU should be on the market, and it should be more compatible with 386-based hardware than these two chips are with Intel's earlier chips.
Toward the end of this century, we will probably look back at the Macintosh and Presentation Manager as the first period of real stability in the microcomputer market. Then, just about the time we are comfortable with that idea, new technologies based on voice recognition and artificial intelligence will make us want to throw everything out again.
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Cary Lu was the founding managing editor of High Technology magazine; he is now technology editor of Inc.
