Weiner's consultants would be paid via monthly retainer. And if B. Thomas Golisano's projections are correct, that payment likely would be made using electronic blips. Golisano, founder and chairman of Paychex Inc., a $220-million payroll-processing company in Rochester, N.Y., sees the financial-services industry "going through a rapid change in the next couple of decades. Because of electronic technology, consumers and businesses will be able to move money around themselves. The consumer is becoming more and more aware of these opportunities."
Golisano imagines a business in electronic loan fulfillment or on-line loan applications, as well as in handling accounts payable for small companies. "There probably would be a long start-up period to overcome consumer and commercial objections," he warns.
Not that quality guru Philip B. Crosby, now chairman of Career IV Inc., believes such a business need rely on whiz-bang technology. Crosby, whose books include the seminal Quality Is Free: The Art of Making Quality Certain, sees an immediate opportunity in the area of personal service. "I have a guy who pays my bills," he explains. "I receive them, initial them, and send them off in a big envelope, and he pays them and sends me back an invoice. I think people would be happy to pay for that kind of service."
Getting to that point, though, will not be easy. Consultant Michael Hammer, coauthor of Reengineering the Corporation, argues that with so many industries in upheaval -- from electric utilities to health care to telecommunications -- consumers are going to need information to help them search out, for instance, the best electric rates. "There are opportunities in those industries," he says.
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OK, but Can't We Sell Them Their Harleys First?
John Naisbitt, megatrend-setter: Art retailing in Asia
Concept: A retail art business based in Kuala Lumpur, the capital of Malaysia.
Management team: John Naisbitt, 65, coauthor of the best-sellers Megatrends and Megatrends 2000.
Rationale: "As countries move from poor to rich, their people first of all start eating out. Second, they start to buy clothes. Third, they start to buy appliances -- air conditioners, refrigerators. Then they buy cars, motorcyles, and apartments. The next stage is overseas travel. After that, they start to buy art. Various people in Asia are at any one of those stages. Geographically, Kuala Lumpur is at the center of southeastern Asia."
Scope: "I'd build a network throughout Asia, and I'd operate in about 20 cities . . . I would not target Japan. That market is saturated."
Market size: "A little after the year 2000, there will be half a billion people in Asia who will be what we generally understand as middle class. The whole center of the world is going to be in Asia."
Competitive strategy: "I'd get there now, and I would preempt everyone else."
Personal commitment: "My greatest interest in the world is art. It would be a fun business."
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From the Pioneers of Computers
Dan Bricklin, spreadsheet creator: Desktop video
Edson de Castro, Data General Corp. cofounder: Biotechnology
Dan Bricklin created revolution-launching VisiCalc, the first software spreadsheet, in 1978. Now 43, Bricklin sees another opportunity in enabling new technology to become truly useful. With faxes and voice mail, "people are getting used to conducting business where they don't meet face-to-face. But people have not yet started building businesses assuming that. They will."
In particular, the chairman of Software Garden Inc. envisions using desktop video to transmit training films or maintain a stable of doctors and lawyers -- or even mechanics -- that would be available to answer consumers' questions face-to-face over a computer monitor.
Edson de Castro, who is 56, cofounded minicomputer giant Data General back in 1968. Like the minicomputer of 25 years ago, de Castro says, biotechnology is a "cutting-edge technology" that is ripe "to be reduced to uses that mortals can appreciate." For example? "People are talking about a genetically altered banana that would allow for a longer time for transportation before it rots."
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The Next Big Thing? Demographic Exploitation
(Or, You Can Turn This Page or You Can Help a Boomer Age Gracefully)
Joseph Mansueto, mutual-funds-data publisher: Retirement advice
Charles Leighton, founder of the company that sells NordicTrak: Home wellness products
George Hatsopoulos, founder of Thermo Electron Corp. technology conglomerate: Body parts
Suddenly, the baby boomers are so busy running the world that they need someone to manage their lives.
Morningstar Inc. founder Joseph Mansueto says he would start a business that would advise boomers on how to invest their retirement funds. Charles Leighton, whose CML Group runs a handful of businesses, would look at ways to "develop wellness" at home. "People will take charge of their own health rather than worry about health costs and insurance," he says. "They will not only exercise but look for other stress-reduction techniques."
But for some it may be too late to save themselves with a few hours in the home sauna. Sooner or later, the parts will wear out -- no, not of the machines, but of the boomers themselves. That's where George Hatsopoulos sees a niche. "In the next 10 years there will be tremendous opportunity for biomedical devices," he predicts. One example: the artificial heart. According to Hatsopoulos, "it is typically demanded by people between the ages of 45 and 55 -- those people in whom society has invested a great deal and who are in the prime of their productivity. If you can make them productive again, the cost of the service is insignificant."
