In an excerpt from his new book, "Hiring Smart!", Mornell describes how to predict the future performance of a job candidate. Includes preinterview strategies and tips on checking references.
Further Reading
A new system for hiring that shows you how to predict winners and losers in the incredibly expensive people-reading game
Over the past 15 years, I've been invited by the presidents of companies, large and small, public and private, to help evaluate and select their key people. From the resulting years of trial and error, I've developed an almost fail-safe method for predicting behavior, which works for hiring all levels of employees, from entry-level staff to company presidents.
My approach was inspired by a man who was a master at predicting winners--San Francisco 49ers chief scout Tony Razzano. During the 1980s the 49ers won four Super Bowls. One reason for their great success was Razzano's selection system. The system had proved itself after he'd made a mistake in selecting a punter, Jim Miller. In an empty stadium, Razzano had watched Miller boom 10 kicks with his shoe on and 10 kicks with his shoe off. Based on Miller's performance that day, Razzano recommended that he be drafted as the 49ers' next punter. "I thought that was a no-miss thing," Razzano says.
But faced with the realities of crowds, wind, bungled snaps, and the oncoming rush of 300-pound defensive linemen, Miller apparently couldn't handle the pressure. After three inconsistent seasons, the 49ers cut him. It turned out to be a watershed--if expensive--lesson for Razzano.
The 49ers changed their selection system. After Miller, Razzano always insisted on observing a player in action for at least 200 plays. Using Razzano's system, the San Francisco 49ers picked Joe Montana in the third round of the NFL draft. Montana was the 82nd player taken that year. Jerry Rice was selected using a similar method and was the 16th player taken in his draft. Montana became a quarterbacking legend, leading the 49ers to those four Super Bowl titles. Rice, shunned by more than a dozen teams in the draft, is widely considered the best receiver ever to play the game. It was Razzano's selection system that enabled the 49ers to see something in two players that no one else was able to see.
Of course, you are rarely going to see 200 demonstrations of a job candidate's talent before you make a hiring decision. But you can see 20 such moves--before, during, and after the interview. You can also hear about another 20 actions or reactions, in various contexts on and off the record, from people who know the candidate. That's about 40 snapshots of a person's behavior. If you watch a person respond to 40 or even 20 challenges, you're less likely to be dazzled by a single shining interview or to be influenced by a strong first impression. And the less likely you are to hire the next warm body who walks into your office.
My suggested strategies affirm Mornell's Maxim, which says, "The best predictor of future behavior is past behavior." It's a conclusion based on 30 years of psychiatric experience. If yesterday a woman was a type A personality, with all of its advantages and disadvantages, you can bet on her being a type A tomorrow. If a man was great with people but lousy with details in his last three jobs, you can predict his future behavior accordingly.
Preinterview Strategies
Most interviewees prepare their strategy in advance for what, inevitably, is a predictable series of interview steps. The candidates can prepare an excellent rÉsumÉ. And should. The candidates can anticipate questions and practice their answers. And should. The company can and should prepare by rethinking the job and redefining the position, including the critical skills and ideal person necessary to perform the job.
If you also script a few additional preinterview plays, your evaluation begins long before the hiring game officially starts. You develop a strategy for which there can be little preparation by the candidate in advance of your meeting. A less predictable interview allows you to evaluate more accurately how he or she will actually perform on the job.
And that is crucial to more than just future performance. You're about to begin a long-term relationship with the person you hire. Thinking about a long-term relationship is very different from thinking about trick questions and body language in an interview. Your purpose is not to trip up the person but to make the best possible match. So here are strategies for getting information about a candidate before the interview formally begins:
Give an Assignment Before the Interview. Ask the candidate to visit one of your stores, plants, campuses, or offices or your Web page before the interview. Then ask for the candidate's observations.
This requirement asks for a demonstration of how a person carries out an actual task. For example, say I'm the marketing director of a small chain of Italian white-tablecloth restaurants. If a potential employee has already visited a location before an interview and can offer some insights about the restaurant's food and service, location, design, and cleanliness, I'd say that particular candidate has spoken volumes before the interview. Furthermore, some retail-store owners have told me that if a candidate has never visited their establishment with or without such an assignment, it's a definite nix on hiring.
OK, let's agree that this test requires that candidates rave about your shop, stores, plants, or restaurants. But what else do they say? Is it insightful, helpful, specific, and accurate? Does the candidate see problems, suggest solutions?
For example, the management committee of the American Golf Corp., which operates more than 250 golf courses in North America and Europe, decided that all its potential employees, including hourly workers, would be required to visit one of its golf courses before the interview. They'd then be asked to comment on the course's overall condition, the cleanliness of the clubhouse, the ease of obtaining starting times, and the food-and-beverage facilities, as well as the customer service.
One 27-year-old candidate wrote a four-page report, which included an evaluation of the concessions, the bar and restaurant, the catering, the management team, the course quality, and the pro shop, before his initial interview. It was an extraordinarily detailed report--including an analysis of the cost of sales, suggestions for better visual display of products, and ideas on special marketing programs to increase product sales--and it impressed the interviewer. Furthermore, the candidate's specific suggestions were practical. He also interviewed extremely well. His references were outstanding, and the results of 20 more demonstrations of his behavior were equally impressive. He was hired, and many of his ideas were implemented by American Golf.
