Small-Biz Owners' Wild Mood Swings

Is the economy half full or half empty?

Since entrepreneurs tend to see the proverbial glass half full, the National Federation of Independent Businesses was justifiably concerned when its monthly index measuring optimism among small-business owners hit a 10-year low in March. Net 1% of the business owners surveyed planned to create new jobs, the lowest reading since 1990. And only net 7% expected the economy to improve by the fall. But what a difference a successful war and the spring thaw can make. In April, the index posted the largest one-month turnaround in its history -- net 36% had come to believe that the economy would get better. Yet Bill Dunkelberg, the NFIB's chief economist, cautions that the leap in entrepreneurial optimism does not suggest a return to robust growth. At most, he says, the rebound in April may indicate a return to normalcy.