The hottest, most mind-boggling high-tech products are coming not only from corporate behemoths but also from start-ups you've never heard of.
Quantum Computers: Always On Always Off The Right Answer Every Time
The Big Idea
In conventional computing, bits are either on or off, representing a 0 or a 1. Quantum computers exploit a weird property of quantum mechanics that allows a bit to temporarily enjoy a dual reality where it is both on and off at the same time, thus embodying two numbers at once. Get these netherworldish qubits to interact with one another in the right way, and you've got a computer that can juggle trillions of numbers at the same instant instead of having to pore over them one by one. In theory, quantum computers will be able in the blink of an eye to crunch through problems that would bog down a conventional computer for hours. The speed will come in handy for things such as analyzing financial markets or recognizing would-be terrorists from vast national security databases. Quantum weirdness can also be applied to data networks to thwart hacking and network eavesdropping.
Time to Market
Two years to never.
Companies to Watch
A number of computing giants, including IBM (NYSE:IBM), HP (NYSE:HPQ), and Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), are researching quantum computing, as are dozens of university labs. But a handful of start-ups are making headway as well. D-Wave Systems in Burnaby, British Columbia, is producing what might be considered a semi-quantum computer -- it won't be as fast as a fully quantum computer but may well prove much faster than a conventional one. And MagiQ Technologies, in New York, is developing products that target the quantum data-security business.
A Word from the Naysayers
Some physicists believe fully quantum computers will never be able to tame enough qubits to be useful. Most physicists seem to feel quantum data security, at least,is achievable within the next few years. Nonphysicists aren't sure what any of this means.
Company Close-Up
In November, D-Wave Systems demonstrated a 28-qubit computer able to solve Sudoku-like puzzles, and CEO Herbert J. Martin promises a 1,000-qubit version capable of limited commercial applications by the end of the year, with actual product shipments to begin in 2009. D-Wave, Martin adds, is talking to some 60 potential customers and partners, including financial service companies that are hunting for a faster way to evaluate complex portfolios. He thinks the application could also help the U.S. Air Force shave tens of millions of dollars a year from its fuel budget by computing more efficient schedules for in-air refueling. Skeptical physicists note a conspicuous lack of scientific papers from D-Wave, but Martin says the company is just protecting patents. "We have 25 Ph.D. scientists working on the project, more than some entire physics departments at major universities," he says. "But we've been putting more emphasis on producing products."
The Future of Gaming: Masters of Reality
The Big Idea
You and your pal have almost made it the two blocks from the parking lot to your office when two zombies pop out of a doorway. No time to draw a gun, but that's all right -- just thinking really nasty thoughts is enough to vaporize the ghouls. You trade grins with your friend, who's actually 1,700 miles away, unplug your mind-reading headset and virtual reality glasses from your cell phone, and make your way up to your office. Gaming is about to break down the barriers between the real world and fantasy, thanks to devices that will read your thoughts, gestures, and expressions; project gaming action onto the streets around you; and populate these quasi-real worlds not only with your distant gaming buddies but with characters that seem as real and wily as Ben from Lost.
Time to Market
Brain-wave-reading headsets are about to hit the market. Devices that project virtual worlds onto the real world around you are less than five years out.
Start-ups to Watch
3DV Systems, a start-up in Yokneam, Israel, has developed a camera that observes a player's motions and translates them into commands in a video game so that the game responds to gestures and body language. Several start-ups, including EmSense in San Francisco and NeuroSky in San Jose, California, are working on head-mounted devices that detect brain waves. Conduit Labs, a start-up in Cambridge, Massachusetts, is working on a hybrid social-networking and gaming environment -- think Facebook meets World of Warcraft.
A Word from the Naysayers
It's no sure thing that artificial intelligence has progressed far enough to endow characters with the smarts needed to make them appear truly real and interesting. And some insist accurate brain-wave measurement is an iffy prospect in an affordable device, so the technique could be glitch ridden for all but the most basic interactions.
Company Close-up
Emotiv Systems, a start-up in San Francisco, plans to introduce its brain-wave-reading headset at the end of this year. The $299 device measures brain electrical activity via 16 scalp sensors, which the company claims allow recognition of basic emotions and up to 30 specific thoughts, such as "lift this object," "fire death ray," or "fly forward." The idea, says Tan Le, the company's president and co-founder, is to create games that adapt the action to the changing moods and thoughts of the players. "Games have never had a feedback loop for understanding how the user experiences content," she says. "When you have that feedback, you can vary the music, the lighting, and the story to help take the player through an emotional journey." The company has raised $13.4 million and has a team of 40 researchers, half of whom have Ph.D.s.
Manufactured Body Parts: We Can Rebuild Him
The Big Idea
The Six Million Dollar Man is finally here. Artificial limbs are becoming more useful and lifelike. And new technology allows people to control them with thought, much as we control our real limbs. Computers installed in the prostheses intercept signals from the wearer's nerves and translate them into commands for motors. Meanwhile, a number of efforts are under way to augment or replace eyes with artificial devices that capture images and relay them to the brain. Researchers also are developing techniques for assembling living cells into working biodevices -- which could mean a solution for damaged internal organs, such as livers, bladders, and kidneys.
Time to market
Eyes that can recognize objects will be available in about five years. In 10 years, we will begin to see prosthetic arms equal to human arms in most tasks, including sensing touch and playing the piano. Artificial organs are also at least a decade away.
Start-Ups to Watch
Much of the work on high-tech prostheses is funded by the U.S. military. At the leading edge is Liberating Technologies in Holliston, Massachusetts, which has developed an artificial arm capable of reading as many as 10 different signals from the wearer's nerves to control five motors simultaneously at variable speeds. Second Sight, a start-up in Sylmar, California, is working on a retinal implant that takes the image from a tiny camera and relays it to the back of the eye. ReInnervate, a start-up in Durham, England, is developing a tiny, three-dimensional plastic scaffolding on which human cells can be grown into artificial tissue, and perhaps eventually into replacements for organs.
