00:12 Scott Gerber: You certainly are somebody that knows a lot about what the next several decades of technological innovation will be, you see it every day. What industry will not exist in a decade?
00:20 Naveen Jain: In terms of where the biggest industries, new industries, are gonna be created is gonna be the area of genetics and health, space exploration, and nano technology. I really believe those are the industries, in some sense, they will disrupt everything. The minute you start to understand the human brain and how human brain learns, it'll be the whole robotic industries. In fact, every single manufacturing will get completely disrupted because the advantage today that China has is because they have muscle power. What if you change that muscle power to be a DNA robotic power and then the advantage of China goes away. So what if we are able to create plenty of energy. So the fact is we have to change our mind set, which is from conservation to creation. And today, we see the sustainability comes from using less of what we have and I see the way you build the society is by creating more of what you need, not just use less of what you have.
01:19 Gerber: On a similar note, you have companies like RIM right now going through all kinds of chaos, whereas five years ago, even less than that people would've thought RIM going away, that's possible. What companies are not gonna start to exist in the next couple of years?
01:31 Jain: Well, I hate to talk about a specific company, but let's talk about the specific industries as such, right. So you would think that industries that are gonna be completely disrupted are the industries that do not change the way things are done. So I would say many of the pharmaceutical industries that you see exist today will not exist in their current form. Many of the companies that you find, in terms of energy, will not exist the way they are today. So I think the energy industry, the pharmaceutical industry are right for disruption.
02:04 Gerber: Okay. Let's talk about winners and losers in your opinion. We're gonna go through a couple of companies and products and you tell me what... Who's gonna win these battles? The iPhone versus Android?
02:14 Jain: I think the iPhone has created ecosystems. If I'm gonna pick any of them, I'm gonna go with iPhone.
02:19 Gerber: Paypal versus Square?
02:21 Jain: Paypal could win because they have plenty of installed base. If they ever get their act together, they can win. If they don't get their act together, the Square wins.
02:29 Gerber: Okay. Facebook versus Google?
02:31 Jain: This one goes to Facebook because Google does not understand the concept of people-centric entity.
02:39 Gerber: Okay. YouTube versus traditional television?
02:41 Jain: YouTube.
02:42 Gerber: Why?
02:43 Jain: Because in some sense, the content... There are three types of things that happens in any industry. In the beginning, it's the content, creator of the content becomes the value, then the distribution becomes the value, and the last part of the food chain is consumption. People who are able to customize how you consume the goods, that actually creates the most value, and I really think that YouTube will be able to create the consumption advice.
03:09 Gerber: I'm gonna ask you to go against one of your good friends here, Microsoft versus itself?
03:13 Jain: Microsoft. I still... I'd hate to ever count Microsoft out. Anyone throwing out 20, 30 billion dollars of cash, you can never discount. They're amazingly smart people and I really believe Windows 8, the next two years for them is going to be a game changer. Either they're gonna get out of it or they're gonna become limp.
03:32 Gerber: And finally, Amazon versus Big Box Top retailers?
03:34 Jain: Oh Amazon, any day.
03:36 Gerber: Do you feel... This new notion of sort of window shopping with your phone, do you feel that will be the death of the traditional mom and pop store? Do you think that these stores, in any current form besides online, will exist in the next two decades?
03:49 Jain: They can only exist if they provide value. So, for example, the Nordstrom's, even though that there maybe many goods. So electronics is slightly different because you're buying a commodity there. Every good that you buy are the same, but clothes are something that even though I do most of my clothes shopping online, my wife would never buy clothes online because she wants to touch it, she wants to try them out. So I really think... And the service she gets from the person. So unless you become a service industry, and where the retail is more than just selling the good, but providing the service, you can survive.