So I'm standing in a Starbucks on Sunday, waiting for my venti iced coffee to arrive. The temperature has been unseasonably warm--in the mid 60s--here in New York for a few days. All of sudden, I become aware that the entire coffee shop is decked out in holiday decorations. I turn to the guy next to me and say, "It's doesn't feel like Christmas, huh?" He laughs and agrees. I get my coffee and head out.

Apparently, I'm not the only guy who feels that way-- the Denver Post ran this story today on how Xmas ads are indeed popping up sooner and sooner each season.

All of this begs the question, will Americans become immune to holiday promos as they become ubiquitous from September until the end of the year? Will there even be a backlash that renders holiday ads much less powerful? Or Option C: are we being trained, as a society, to become ever bigger spenders come the merriment and celebration of Q4?

My bet: in th future, the only effective holiday campaigns will be those that are really expensive--so many companies will back away from them. Clever innovators will devise sleek, slightly less cheery promotions, ad campaigns, new product launches, etc. to counter-program their rivals old school green-and-red offerings.

And speaking of Old School, and so long as I'm making predictions, you heard it here first: Bob Newhart will be nominated for a Supporting Actor Oscar for his role in Elf.