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Is Obama Catching Clinton in Indiana?

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Yes, I know: this is not a horse race blog. Sometimes, though, I just can't help myself. As recently as late last week, the foregone conclusion was that Sen. Hillary Clinton would win in Indiana. The polling there produced pretty consistent results, showing Clinton ahead by five to ten points. Consider these surveys, reported at RealClearPolitics.com:

April 28, SurveyUSA: Clinton +9
April 29, Public Policy Polling: Clinton +8
May 1, TeleResearch: Clinton +10
May 1, Rasmussen: Clinton +5
May 2, InsiderAdvantage: Clinton +7
May 2, Downs Center: Clinton +7
May 2, American Research Group: Clinton +9

But on Friday, there was also an outlier: Zogby had the Democratic senators tied. Zogby, though, always seems to be an outlier; a Zogby poll of North Carolina published on the same day had Barack Obama ahead by 16, while other North Carolina surveys put Obama's advantage at between five and 11 points.

On Saturday, Zogby reported Obama ahead in Indiana by one point (and his lead in the day's North Carolina Zogby poll had dropped to a more credible nine points). Sunday he was up by two points. Now, just hours before Indiana votes, a slew of new polls. Subtract the SurveyUSA figure (and perhaps, too, Zogby's), and the trend is clear:

InsiderAdvantage: Clinton +4.0
Suffolk University: Clinton +6.0
Public Policy Polling: Clinton +5.0
SurveyUSA: Clinton +12.0
Zogby Tracking: Obama +2.0

If Obama pulls off an upset in Indiana, you heard it here first. If, on the other hand, it's a Clinton blow-out, this post will vanish like Hillary Clinton's Ivy League pedigree.

Last updated: May 5, 2008




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