This is a post that I am struggling to write. I really have no idea what is going to happen in 2018.
- Will the crypto markets continue in their bull cycle? I have no clue. I was showing my daughter's friend an app that helps people save and invest and he said to me, "I don't need that, I just buy some ETH every week." I said, "That's a good plan until it isn't." I just don't know when buying crypto will stop being a good idea. It was a great idea in 2017.
- Will the economy extend its eight-year expansion? I have no clue. The longest post-WWII economic expansion was 10 years from 1991 to 2001. Can this one beat that one? Maybe. Will this one also burst over the collapse of another tech bubble? Maybe. But again, I have no idea when that might come.
- Will the corporate tax cuts that are coming from Trump's tax bill lead to increased hiring and investments, or will companies simply hoard that cash or pay it out in dividends? Likely a bit of both. But I think Wall Street has largely priced in the increased earnings so I'm not sure the tax bill will be a boon for the stock market in 2018.
- Will the current Internet oligopoly (Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Google) continue to take share from the rest of the sector, or will one or more start to falter? I'd like to see the latter, but I suspect it will be more of the former.
- Will the rise of massive growth funds (SOFTBANK, Sequoia, etc) lead to the best and brightest tech companies delaying IPOs even longer? The logical answer is yes, but I think the answer may be no. We see an increasing desire of founders in our portfolio to take their companies public.
- Will the tech backlash that I wrote about yesterday continue to escalate? Yes.
- Will we see more gender and racial diversity in tech? Yes.
- Will Trump be president at the end of 2018? Yes.
- Will the GOP lose control of Congress in the midterm elections? Yes.
- Will we avoid war with North Korea? I sure hope so.
So there you have it. Ten questions. A few predictions. A lot of unknowns. That is how I am going into 2018.
Happy New Year, everyone.
Published on: Jan 2, 2018