In the first 24 hours since the U.S. presidential election on November 8th, we saw the stock market dip and rip, the spike of gold, and the plummet of the peso. Investors and business leaders are all too aware that it's easy to read the signals wrong.
"Change generally means opportunity to those who are willing to take risks," says Amir Korangy, Publisher, The Real Deal, the largest real estate media and information outlet in the country. Korangy adds, "Right now, no one really knows how the new agenda is going to roll out. But, we can say that they're going to want to make changes and they're going to need help. Whether those changes occur in energy, defense, education or healthcare, subsidies will become available. As a result, new opportunities will present themselves."
Korangy has successfully identified those early indicators in Mexico, the U.S. and China over the past 20 years by focusing on the three P's: Priorities, Policies and Personnel.
1. Priorities - "Trump loves real estate. Loosening mortgage lending standards and deregulating development are conversations that are happening now. Everyone in the chain including new home buyers, builders, construction suppliers, and lenders will be excited about this," says Korangy.
2. Personnel - "Another early indicator is looking at the people who are controlling the conversation. By examining his advisors, we get a sense of what matters to them. Trump's people include Steve Roth from Vornado, one of the largest R.E.I.T.s in the country; Howard Lorber, Chairman of the Vector Group, a conglomerate that owns banks, new development, and real estate brokerages; and Jared Kushner, CEO of the Kushner Companies, a real estate developer and landlord," says Korangy.
3. Policy - "Opportunities tend to lie in policy changes and you can start following those now. The morning after the election Pharma stocks shot up due to speculation around the potential repeal of Obamacare. Again, a hint of policy change caused the related sectors of the market to move in a big way," says Korangy.
So by studying the new administration's priorities, personnel and policies, you place yourself in a position to make moves that allow you to take advantage of the writing on the wall -- even when it's in Mandarin.
China has become the largest foreign investor in U.S. real estate, so Korangy has developed The Real Deal Shanghai Forum, the largest U.S. new development show in China, which connects U.S. developers with Chinese investors, held on Nov. 17-19. If you're in town, feel free to stop by and say Ni hao.