I'm not Nostradamus. But I'm pretty certain the 2016 election has been over for a long time.
Hillary Clinton and the Democrats will win the 2016 election, unless the Russians hack all the voting machines in the North and state-level Republicans fail to count any minority ballots in the South, or some other calamity befalls the blue candidate and her party.
You can sum it up in five words: technology: early voting & demographic targeting.
The Democrats simply have a much better voter targeting operation than the Republicans do, combined with deeper coffers, better fundraising, and a stronger national and by-state ground game, they know exactly which voters they need to target, and how to get them out to vote between now and November 8.
Given their wide margin for error in the Electoral College, that should be enough, especially because they can utilize that technological edge over a long period between when early voting starts in September in certain states through Election Day to fully maximize turnout in every county where they have advantages.
As a case in point, consider of Pennsylvania, which the press has taken to declaring a "battleground state" and is absolutely crucial to the Republicans' path to 270 electoral votes.
Ignore polls, which show Clinton ahead, for the purposes of this exercise, and just look at what the technology and demographics show us.
Utilizing demographic targeting technology, the Democrats have rightly determined that the state has four primary voting regions and profiles, each with similar percentages of voters: urban (Pittsburgh and Philadelphia), near suburban, far suburban, and rural.
If you break down the states' voters from the 2012 election, you find that the Democrats carried the inner cities by a huge margin, the Republicans carried the rural regions by a similar margin, the Republicans won far suburbs narrowly, and lost near suburbs narrowly. The Democrats, predictably, are doing even better in the inner cities this election, hardly shocking given minority polling numbers in 2016, but the Republicans have nullified that with significant rural gains.
But, here is the rub: Democrats are using their vast monetary and technological advantage to laser target all suburban white women and college-educated white men in the near suburbs and cities. They are targeting their advertising spend county by county, and increasingly household by household through superior digital advertising targeting capabilities. In 2012, Mitt Romney won both these demographics by over 5 points, and still lost Pennsylvania by over 300,000 votes.
Worse for Republicans, Romney's loss represented a nearly half-million vote improvement on McCain's 2008 performance, which came mostly from losses among rural and far suburban, less educated, democratic voters. In short, Donald Trump is targeting a demographic area that already shot a half-round of bullets for the Republicans in the last cycle.
Clinton is currently winning women, and about even in men as of mid-August polls. Even if the Republicans turned out every rural voter in Pennsylvanian Appalachia, there are not nearly enough to make up those percentage losses plus their 2012 deficit.
With the Republican's reliance on overtaxed national party apparatus and lack of a sophisticated state-by-state get out the vote operation, even that is highly unlikely. Indeed, in 2012, Republicans underperformed their average polls by 2-3 points in many counties due to inferior voter targeting and ground operations.
A similar situation is playing out in Virginia and North Carolina, which have similar electoral divisions to be exploited: large metropolitan areas safely in the demographic column, blue-ish purple suburbs, and very red rural areas. Both states have higher than national average percentages of college-educated white men and suburban women.
If the Republicans lose just those states plus Pennsylvania, Clinton is already at 270+ votes, just counting the other states firmly in the demographic column, and leaving out all tossup states such as Florida, Ohio, Iowa and Nevada.