Is the US heading towards a recession as of right now (2019)? originally appeared on Quora: the place to gain and share knowledge, empowering people to learn from others and better understand the world.
I don't think we're headed towards a recession right now. When I look at the data coming in, I see solid domestic momentum that points to a continued economic expansion. The labor market is strong, consumer confidence is high, and consumer spending is healthy.
But considerable headwinds, like weaker global growth and trade uncertainties, have emerged - and they're contributing to this fear we see in the markets that a downturn is right around the corner. So one thing I'm looking closely at is whether the mood gets so out of sync with the data that the fear of recession becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.
My colleagues and I on the Federal Open Market Committee recently lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points. Speaking only for myself, I do believe this was an appropriate recalibration of policy in response to the headwinds we're facing - along with inflation rates that continue to come in under our 2% target. However, I should stress that my support for this cut is based around my desire to see our economic expansion continue - not because I see an impending downturn on the horizon.
This question originally appeared on Quora - the place to gain and share knowledge, empowering people to learn from others and better understand the world. You can follow Quora on Twitter and Facebook. More questions: